The sample

A wedding on 26 June 2027.

What a planner receives for one event: the requirements, each with what answers it; three venues scored with their evidence and shown by region only; and the watch until the day.

This sample is the risk reading: the field around its places, everything others and nature bring to them, read for what could go wrong and when. See the field

The couple

One Dutch and one from abroad, marrying on Saturday 26 June 2027. 140 guests, 35 of them flying in through Schiphol, 12 over seventy, 2 in wheelchairs. Within an hour of Amsterdam.

Twelve requirements

Each is one a planner cannot answer from a brochure, a visit or experience.

A 42° · B 36° · C 11°

The vows outdoors at sunset, facing open water, with nothing between the couple and the setting sun

The sun's bearing at that hour on that date, and whether a building, a tree line or a dyke is in the way, is geometry, not a brochure photograph

Sunset 22:05, 26 June
Bearing 312°
Line of sight in 3D
3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

A 6% · B 4% · C 31%

No aircraft overhead during the twenty minutes of the vows

Which runway Schiphol uses depends on the wind; nobody tells a couple the odds of an overflight at that hour on a late-June Saturday

Evening wind
Runway use by wind
Noise contours
KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

A 640 m · B 210 m · C 910 m

Music until 01:00 without a neighbour's complaint ending the party

Whether sound carries to the nearest homes depends on their distance, the prevailing wind and the municipality's rules for that spot

Nearest home
Wind in June
Event and noise rules
BAG · A1

A 0 permits · B 2 permits · C 1 permit

Nothing being built, demolished or dug within sight or hearing that summer

Permits next door are not in any brochure

Permits within the radius
Plans in force and coming
Gazette · DSO · A2

A 0 closures · B 0 closures · C 1 closure

No road works, closures or other events on the access roads that weekend

They are decided months later by road authorities and municipalities

Road works and closures
Events that weekend
NDW · gazette · B2

A 38 km · B 41 km · C 33 km

The 35 guests from abroad at the venue within an hour of landing, and the elderly and wheelchair users without a long walk or steps

Travel time on a June Saturday and step-free access need data, not an estimate

From Schiphol
Straight line
BAG · straight line · A2

A 64 beds · B 118 beds · C 96 beds

Eighty beds within fifteen minutes' walk, so nobody drives after the party

The planner knows two hotels; the data knows all of them

Fifteen minutes on foot
Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

A Clear · B Natura 2000 near · C Natura 2000 near

A drone shot over the water at golden hour

Whether the venue lies in a control zone or a nature area, and what is allowed over 140 guests, is airspace law

Within 500 m
Natura 2000 boundaries
Drone zones
Natura 2000 · A1

A 9% · B 9% · C 11%

Low odds of heat or a downpour, and shade if it is hot

The odds for one week of the year are statistics

That week's climate record
Nearest stations
KNMI climatology · B3

A 20.4 mag · B 19.6 mag · C 20.1 mag

A clear, dark sky for a late moment under the stars

Light pollution and the moon are not in a venue's description

Night light from satellite
Moon phase and rise
VIIRS night lights · B2

A 31 years · B 3 years · C 12 years

A venue whose company will still be there on the day, as the registers show it

A planner trusts the venue's reputation

Trade register
Insolvency register
Ownership of the property
KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

A 1924 · B 1911 · C 1998

A place with a story worth telling in the film

A planner knows the venue's marketing story

Main building
Build year
BAG · A1

Three venues, scored

Scored against the twelve requirements with the couple's own weights, each answer with its source and grade.

Venue A

Region: around the IJmeer

Rank 1

0.86

Fit on the requirements answered

12 of 12 requirements answered
The couple's own weights
Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterFor

42°

Open water across 42° of the sunset sector

Sunset 22:05, 26 June
Bearing 312°
Line of sight in 3D
3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsFor

A 6% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

Evening wind
Runway use by wind
Noise contours
KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00For

640 m

Nearest home 640 m away

Nearest home
Wind in June
Event and noise rules
BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyFor

0 permits

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

Permits within the radius
Plans in force and coming
Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsFor

0 closures

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

Road works and closures
Events that weekend
NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

38 km

38 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

From Schiphol
Straight line
BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceAgainst

64 beds

64 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

Fifteen minutes on foot
Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterFor

Clear

No Natura 2000 area within 500 m

Within 500 m
Natura 2000 boundaries
Drone zones
Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

A 9% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

That week's climate record
Nearest stations
KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyFor

20.4 mag

A sky of 20.4 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

Night light from satellite
Moon phase and rise
VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersFor

31 years

The operator registered for 31 years, with no insolvency notice

Trade register
Insolvency register
Ownership of the property
KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmFor

1924

Built in 1924

Main building
Build year
BAG · A1

Venue B

Region: around the Gooimeer

Rank 2

0.64

Fit on the requirements answered

12 of 12 requirements answered
The couple's own weights
Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterFor

36°

Open water across 36° of the sunset sector

Sunset 22:05, 26 June
Bearing 312°
Line of sight in 3D
3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsFor

A 4% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

Evening wind
Runway use by wind
Noise contours
KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00Against

210 m

Nearest home 210 m away

Nearest home
Wind in June
Event and noise rules
BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyAgainst

2 permits

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

Permits within the radius
Plans in force and coming
Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsFor

0 closures

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

Road works and closures
Events that weekend
NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

41 km

41 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

From Schiphol
Straight line
BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceFor

118 beds

118 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

Fifteen minutes on foot
Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterAgainst

Natura 2000 near

A Natura 2000 area within 500 m: the drone needs care

Within 500 m
Natura 2000 boundaries
Drone zones
Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

A 9% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

That week's climate record
Nearest stations
KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyAgainst

19.6 mag

A sky of 19.6 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

Night light from satellite
Moon phase and rise
VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersAgainst

3 years

The operator registered for 3 years, with no insolvency notice

Trade register
Insolvency register
Ownership of the property
KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmFor

1911

Built in 1911

Main building
Build year
BAG · A1

Venue C

Region: around the IJmeer

Rank 3

0.51

Fit on the requirements answered

12 of 12 requirements answered
The couple's own weights
Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterAgainst

11°

Open water across 11° of the sunset sector

Sunset 22:05, 26 June
Bearing 312°
Line of sight in 3D
3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsAgainst

31%

A 31% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

Evening wind
Runway use by wind
Noise contours
KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00For

910 m

Nearest home 910 m away

Nearest home
Wind in June
Event and noise rules
BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyAgainst

1 permit

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

Permits within the radius
Plans in force and coming
Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsAgainst

1 closure

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

Road works and closures
Events that weekend
NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

33 km

33 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

From Schiphol
Straight line
BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceFor

96 beds

96 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

Fifteen minutes on foot
Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterAgainst

Natura 2000 near

A Natura 2000 area within 500 m: the drone needs care

Within 500 m
Natura 2000 boundaries
Drone zones
Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

11%

A 11% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

That week's climate record
Nearest stations
KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyFor

20.1 mag

A sky of 20.1 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

Night light from satellite
Moon phase and rise
VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersFor

12 years

The operator registered for 12 years, with no insolvency notice

Trade register
Insolvency register
Ownership of the property
KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmAgainst

1998

Built in 1998

Main building
Build year
BAG · A1

Each source carries a grade: a letter for how reliable the source is (A completely reliable to F, unknown) and a figure for how well the fact is confirmed (1 confirmed to 6, cannot be judged).

The watch, in the days before the wedding

Step through four moments of the watch. Each shows the assumptions, their sources and grades, and the script.

Play the film, 40 secondsStop the film

2027-06-23 · 06:15

Three days before: the wind turns

The forecast turns the evening wind to the north-east. In that wind the evening departures cross the venue during the vows, so the quiet the vows rest on breaks, and the vows are marked.

P(QUIET | NE, 21:45)

21%

Chance that no departure crosses the venue during the vows, 21:45–22:05.

Wind NE 045°
Departures 21:50–22:20
Vows 21:45
MET Norway forecast · LVNL runway preference · B2

Assumption	Reading	Source	Grade	State
A01 No departures over the venue during the vows	45	MET Norway forecast · LVNL runway preference	B2	broken
A02 Wind at the shore under 8 m/s during the vows	5.8 m/s	MET Norway forecast	B2	holds
A03 Dry during the vows	0 mm/h	MET Norway forecast	B2	holds
A04 Wind under 7 m/s for the drone shot	5.2 m/s	MET Norway forecast	B2	holds
A05 Dry on the terrace through dinner	0 mm/h	MET Norway forecast	B2	holds
A06 Not over 30 °C on the lawn in the afternoon	24 °C	MET Norway forecast	B2	holds

Time	Step	State
15:00–15:45	Guests arrive	as planned
16:00–17:45	Drinks on the lawn	as planned
18:00–21:00	Dinner on the terrace	as planned
21:10–21:30	The drone shot over the water	as planned
21:45–22:05	The vows at the water	affected
22:30–01:00	The party, music until 01:00	as planned

What the watch caught

The brief is the intelligence, and it is right on the day it is written. The places do not stand still after that, so the watch keeps the brief right until the day: each card is a fact that arrived after the brief, with the odds without the watch and with it.

23 June 2027 · Day −3

21% → 93%

Three days before: the wind turns

Without the watch: 21%
With the watch: 93%, accepted at 06:24
MET Norway forecast · LVNL runway preference · B2