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The sample

A wedding on 26 June 2027.

What a planner receives for one event: the requirements, each with what answers it; three venues scored with their evidence and shown by region only; and the watch until the day.

This sample is the risk reading: the field around its places, everything others and nature bring to them, read for what could go wrong and when. See the field

The couple

One Dutch and one from abroad, marrying on Saturday 26 June 2027. 140 guests, 35 of them flying in through Schiphol, 12 over seventy, 2 in wheelchairs. Within an hour of Amsterdam.

Twelve requirements

Each is one a planner cannot answer from a brochure, a visit or experience.

01

A 42° · B 36° · C 11°

The vows outdoors at sunset, facing open water, with nothing between the couple and the setting sun

The sun's bearing at that hour on that date, and whether a building, a tree line or a dyke is in the way, is geometry, not a brochure photograph

  • Sunset 22:05, 26 June
  • Bearing 312°
  • Line of sight in 3D
  • 3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02

A 6% · B 4% · C 31%

No aircraft overhead during the twenty minutes of the vows

Which runway Schiphol uses depends on the wind; nobody tells a couple the odds of an overflight at that hour on a late-June Saturday

  • Evening wind
  • Runway use by wind
  • Noise contours
  • KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03

A 640 m · B 210 m · C 910 m

Music until 01:00 without a neighbour's complaint ending the party

Whether sound carries to the nearest homes depends on their distance, the prevailing wind and the municipality's rules for that spot

  • Nearest home
  • Wind in June
  • Event and noise rules
  • BAG · A1

04

A 0 permits · B 2 permits · C 1 permit

Nothing being built, demolished or dug within sight or hearing that summer

Permits next door are not in any brochure

  • Permits within the radius
  • Plans in force and coming
  • Gazette · DSO · A2

05

A 0 closures · B 0 closures · C 1 closure

No road works, closures or other events on the access roads that weekend

They are decided months later by road authorities and municipalities

  • Road works and closures
  • Events that weekend
  • NDW · gazette · B2

06

A 38 km · B 41 km · C 33 km

The 35 guests from abroad at the venue within an hour of landing, and the elderly and wheelchair users without a long walk or steps

Travel time on a June Saturday and step-free access need data, not an estimate

  • From Schiphol
  • Straight line
  • BAG · straight line · A2

07

A 64 beds · B 118 beds · C 96 beds

Eighty beds within fifteen minutes' walk, so nobody drives after the party

The planner knows two hotels; the data knows all of them

  • Fifteen minutes on foot
  • Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
  • OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08

A Clear · B Natura 2000 near · C Natura 2000 near

A drone shot over the water at golden hour

Whether the venue lies in a control zone or a nature area, and what is allowed over 140 guests, is airspace law

  • Within 500 m
  • Natura 2000 boundaries
  • Drone zones
  • Natura 2000 · A1

09

A 9% · B 9% · C 11%

Low odds of heat or a downpour, and shade if it is hot

The odds for one week of the year are statistics

  • That week's climate record
  • Nearest stations
  • KNMI climatology · B3

10

A 20.4 mag · B 19.6 mag · C 20.1 mag

A clear, dark sky for a late moment under the stars

Light pollution and the moon are not in a venue's description

  • Night light from satellite
  • Moon phase and rise
  • VIIRS night lights · B2

11

A 31 years · B 3 years · C 12 years

A venue whose company will still be there on the day, as the registers show it

A planner trusts the venue's reputation

  • Trade register
  • Insolvency register
  • Ownership of the property
  • KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12

A 1924 · B 1911 · C 1998

A place with a story worth telling in the film

A planner knows the venue's marketing story

  • Main building
  • Build year
  • BAG · A1

Three venues, scored

Scored against the twelve requirements with the couple's own weights, each answer with its source and grade.

Venue A

Region: around the IJmeer

Rank 1

0.86

Fit on the requirements answered

  • 12 of 12 requirements answered
  • The couple's own weights
  • Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterFor

42°

Open water across 42° of the sunset sector

  • Sunset 22:05, 26 June
  • Bearing 312°
  • Line of sight in 3D
  • 3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsFor

6%

A 6% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

  • Evening wind
  • Runway use by wind
  • Noise contours
  • KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00For

640 m

Nearest home 640 m away

  • Nearest home
  • Wind in June
  • Event and noise rules
  • BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyFor

0 permits

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

  • Permits within the radius
  • Plans in force and coming
  • Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsFor

0 closures

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

  • Road works and closures
  • Events that weekend
  • NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

38 km

38 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

  • From Schiphol
  • Straight line
  • BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceAgainst

64 beds

64 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

  • Fifteen minutes on foot
  • Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
  • OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterFor

Clear

No Natura 2000 area within 500 m

  • Within 500 m
  • Natura 2000 boundaries
  • Drone zones
  • Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

9%

A 9% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

  • That week's climate record
  • Nearest stations
  • KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyFor

20.4 mag

A sky of 20.4 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

  • Night light from satellite
  • Moon phase and rise
  • VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersFor

31 years

The operator registered for 31 years, with no insolvency notice

  • Trade register
  • Insolvency register
  • Ownership of the property
  • KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmFor

1924

Built in 1924

  • Main building
  • Build year
  • BAG · A1

Venue B

Region: around the Gooimeer

Rank 2

0.64

Fit on the requirements answered

  • 12 of 12 requirements answered
  • The couple's own weights
  • Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterFor

36°

Open water across 36° of the sunset sector

  • Sunset 22:05, 26 June
  • Bearing 312°
  • Line of sight in 3D
  • 3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsFor

4%

A 4% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

  • Evening wind
  • Runway use by wind
  • Noise contours
  • KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00Against

210 m

Nearest home 210 m away

  • Nearest home
  • Wind in June
  • Event and noise rules
  • BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyAgainst

2 permits

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

  • Permits within the radius
  • Plans in force and coming
  • Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsFor

0 closures

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

  • Road works and closures
  • Events that weekend
  • NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

41 km

41 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

  • From Schiphol
  • Straight line
  • BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceFor

118 beds

118 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

  • Fifteen minutes on foot
  • Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
  • OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterAgainst

Natura 2000 near

A Natura 2000 area within 500 m: the drone needs care

  • Within 500 m
  • Natura 2000 boundaries
  • Drone zones
  • Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

9%

A 9% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

  • That week's climate record
  • Nearest stations
  • KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyAgainst

19.6 mag

A sky of 19.6 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

  • Night light from satellite
  • Moon phase and rise
  • VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersAgainst

3 years

The operator registered for 3 years, with no insolvency notice

  • Trade register
  • Insolvency register
  • Ownership of the property
  • KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmFor

1911

Built in 1911

  • Main building
  • Build year
  • BAG · A1

Venue C

Region: around the IJmeer

Rank 3

0.51

Fit on the requirements answered

  • 12 of 12 requirements answered
  • The couple's own weights
  • Computed from the evidence below

01 · Sunset over open waterAgainst

11°

Open water across 11° of the sunset sector

  • Sunset 22:05, 26 June
  • Bearing 312°
  • Line of sight in 3D
  • 3DBAG · AHN · solar position · A2

02 · No aircraft during the vowsAgainst

31%

A 31% chance of a departure overhead during the vows

  • Evening wind
  • Runway use by wind
  • Noise contours
  • KNMI June wind · LVNL runway use · RIVM contours · B3

03 · Music until 01:00For

910 m

Nearest home 910 m away

  • Nearest home
  • Wind in June
  • Event and noise rules
  • BAG · A1

04 · No works nearbyAgainst

1 permit

Permits to build or demolish within 1 km that summer

  • Permits within the radius
  • Plans in force and coming
  • Gazette · DSO · A2

05 · Open access roadsAgainst

1 closure

Road works or closures planned on the access roads that weekend

  • Road works and closures
  • Events that weekend
  • NDW · gazette · B2

06 · Reach from SchipholFor

33 km

33 km from Schiphol in a straight line, standing in for travel time

  • From Schiphol
  • Straight line
  • BAG · straight line · A2

07 · Eighty beds in walking distanceFor

96 beds

96 beds within fifteen minutes' walk

  • Fifteen minutes on foot
  • Every lodging mapped, its beds from its own listing
  • OpenStreetMap · BAG · the lodgings' own listings · B2

08 · A drone shot over the waterAgainst

Natura 2000 near

A Natura 2000 area within 500 m: the drone needs care

  • Within 500 m
  • Natura 2000 boundaries
  • Drone zones
  • Natura 2000 · A1

09 · Neither heat nor rainFor

11%

A 11% chance of heat over 30 °C or a downpour that week

  • That week's climate record
  • Nearest stations
  • KNMI climatology · B3

10 · A dark skyFor

20.1 mag

A sky of 20.1 magnitudes per square arcsecond at night

  • Night light from satellite
  • Moon phase and rise
  • VIIRS night lights · B2

11 · The venue's company in the registersFor

12 years

The operator registered for 12 years, with no insolvency notice

  • Trade register
  • Insolvency register
  • Ownership of the property
  • KVK · insolvency register · gazette · A2

12 · A story for the filmAgainst

1998

Built in 1998

  • Main building
  • Build year
  • BAG · A1

Each source carries a grade: a letter for how reliable the source is (A completely reliable to F, unknown) and a figure for how well the fact is confirmed (1 confirmed to 6, cannot be judged).

The watch, in the days before the wedding

Step through four moments of the watch. Each shows the assumptions, their sources and grades, and the script.

THE WATCHA WEDDING ON 26 JUNE 2027 · 140 GUESTSVENUE A · VOWS 21:45–22:05D-10 · EVERY ASSUMPTION HOLDSD-3 · FORECAST AT 06:15WIND FROM 045° · DEPARTURES 21:50–22:20 OVER THE VENUED-3 · THE ALTERNATIVEVOWS 21:25–21:45 · SUN 3.9°26 JUNE 2027 · VOWS 21:25–21:45 · EVERY ASSUMPTION HELDVENUE A20:3021:0021:3022:0022:30DEPARTURESVOWSSUN 3.9° AT 21:25ACCEPTED BY THE PLANNER 06:24SCRIPT UPDATEDSUPPLIERS TOLDGUESTS TOLD

2027-06-16 · 09:00

Ten days before: the plan holds

The forecast does not reach the day yet, so every assumption rests on the climate of late June. All of them hold.

P(QUIET | SW, 21:45)

94%

Chance that no departure crosses the venue during the vows, 21:45–22:05.

0%50%100%
  • Wind SW 235°
  • Vows 21:45
  • KNMI June climatology · LVNL runway preference · B3
235° · 4.6 M/SA01A02A03A04A05A0621:0021:3022:0022:30
AssumptionReadingSourceGradeState
A01 No departures over the venue during the vows 235KNMI June climatology · LVNL runway preferenceB3 holds
A02 Wind at the shore under 8 m/s during the vows 4.6 m/sKNMI June climatologyB3 holds
A03 Dry during the vows 0 mm/hKNMI June climatologyB3 holds
A04 Wind under 7 m/s for the drone shot 4.1 m/sKNMI June climatologyB3 holds
A05 Dry on the terrace through dinner 0 mm/hKNMI June climatologyB3 holds
A06 Not over 30 °C on the lawn in the afternoon 22 °CKNMI June climatologyB3 holds
TimeStepState
15:00–15:45Guests arriveas planned
16:00–17:45Drinks on the lawnas planned
18:00–21:00Dinner on the terraceas planned
21:10–21:30The drone shot over the wateras planned
21:45–22:05The vows at the wateras planned
22:30–01:00The party, music until 01:00as planned

Next moment →

What the watch caught

The brief is the intelligence, and it is right on the day it is written. The places do not stand still after that, so the watch keeps the brief right until the day: each card is a fact that arrived after the brief, with the odds without the watch and with it.

23 June 2027 · Day −3

21% → 93%

Three days before: the wind turns

  • Without the watch: 21%
  • With the watch: 93%, accepted at 06:24
  • MET Norway forecast · LVNL runway preference · B2